Air Quality Forecasting

Air Quality Forecast for Delhi

The two forecasting efforts conducted for the games are by the Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) and the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM). The forecasting by IITM under MOES is the official one for the CWG 2010 Delhi.

Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune

IITM, Pune established the System of Air Quality forecasting and Research (SAFAR) for the Games. SAFAR will provide nearly real time air quality information for Ozone, Oxides of Nitrogen, Carbon Monoxide, PM2.5, PM10, Benzene, Toluene, Xylene, and Black carbon and weather forecast prior 24 hours. 11 Air Quality Monitoring Stations, 34 Automatic weather stations in NCR along with GPS sonde observations, and Doppler Weather radar have been installed.

SAFAR Project Components:
1. Development of emission inventory of air pollutants for NCR
2. Defining air quality index for India
3. Network of eleven Air Quality Monitoring Stations (AQMS) equipped with 11 automatic weather stations to provide near real time air quality information
4. 3-D atmospheric chemistry transport forecasting modeling coupled with weather forecasting model to provide 24 hour advance forecast of air pollutant levels

Figure 1. Delhi Air Quality Monitoring and Forecasting System (IITM)

All information will be on display located at 20 different locations in Delhi for the public and will be online detailed information through the web portal .

Source:
Ch. Narendra. 2010. SAFAR and weather services dedicated to nation

Development of an Advanced Notification System on Daily Air Quality

An advanced notification system on daily air quality is developed for the public and the media for the National Capital Region (NCR) of Delhi, with financial support from the French Government under the "Clean Air for Delhi 2010 and Beyond" program, by two French firms - Aria Technologies SA and Leosphere SA, in technical collaboration with the Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) in Delhi, India. The system is expected to be operational before the Commonwealth Games in October, 2010. The Aria Technologies SA and Leosphere SA have previously developed similar system for Beijing, which became operational during the Olympic games in 2008 and are also developing one for Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) as part of the Olympics 2016 preparations.

Similar to the daily weather forecasts from the Indian Meteorological Department, for the whole country, the program is designed to provide air quality forecasts for at least 48 hours for NCR. The program has a geographical resolution of ONE kilometer, covering all of NCR (52 km north to south and 52 km east to west), which means that a forecast is available for every nook and corner of NCR, including the transport, residential, and industrial hot spots, and points of interest, such as venues during the Commonwealth games (Figure 2).

Figure 2. Air Quality Forecast Map for Delhi

Source: http://www.urbanemissions.info/daqi

Central Pollution Control Board

While the system is based on a modeling exercise, combining the atmospheric physics of weather forecasting and atmospheric chemistry among pollutants, the inputs include emission intensities from multiple sources contributing to the growing air pollution problem in Delhi. Most common sources observed are vehicle exhaust and road dust, industrial emissions, residential fuel use, generator sets and garbage burning. A number of surveys were conducted to collect information on these sources and compiled to make an informed forecast of air quality.

The data also includes information from the existing monitoring network operated by CPCB and laser based LIDAR network deployed in the region to establish horizontal and vertical profiles of aerosols, aka, particulate matter (PM), the most harmful of the pollutants to human health. Starting from September 1st, four stationary LIDARs will be operating in Delhi at CPCB, National Physical Laboratories, Bhikaji Cama, and Janakpuri, and one mobile LIDAR operating during the Commonwealth Games, will be connected to the modeling system in real time.

The PM pollution, along with other pollutants, is routinely monitored by the pollution control boards from all states and the daily averages for RSPM (respirable suspended particulate matter) in Delhi range between 150 to 200 micro-gm/m3, while the daily standard prescribed by CPCB is 100 micro-gm/m3, over which the incidence rates of health impacts likes asthma, acute chronic bronchitis, eye irritations, and even premature death is higher.

This program is designed to provide pollution alerts to the public and the media and hopefully minimize the instances of higher health impacts in the future for better health. As part of the outputs, the air quality index (AQI) ranging between 0 and 500, is also estimated for various parts of the city and published as a common denominator for multiple pollutants. The system is also utilized for air pollution management by studying scenarios to control pollution and evaluate the impacts of implementation of projects on air quality.

Now, the short term goal for the program is to support the Commonwealth Games, by relaying information on air quality, at least 48 hours in advance to the public, the athletes, and the media. The program is expected to continue its operations beyond 2010 under the leadership of CPCB in Delhi and replicated in other cities.

Dr. Giuseppe Calori – g.calori@aria-net.it
Dr. Sarath Guttikunda – sguttikunda@gmail.com